Rahm's Replacement
As speculation grows that White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel will soon depart to run for Chicago mayor, Ben Smith reports Emanuel has told Chicago associates he believes senior Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett will likely succeed him.

Parties Tied in Generic Ballot
The very volatile Gallup tracking poll shows Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% among registered voters in congressional voting preferences, marking a shift after five consecutive weeks in which the Republicans held the advantage.

Just last week, Republicans held an unprecedented 10 point lead in the tracking poll.

However, there has been "no change in the advantage Republicans hold over Democrats on motivation to vote in the fall elections. Republicans remain twice as likely as Democrats to be 'very enthusiastic' about voting, tied with the previous week's measure as the largest such advantage of the year."

Gallup does not give generic ballot results using this likely voter screen.

Hickenlooper Headed for Landslide Win
A new Public Opinion Strategies/FMMMA poll in Colorado shows the gubernatorial race "appears to be a foregone conclusion, barring a fundamental shift in the race dynamics."

John Hickenlooper (D) leads with 48%, followed by just 25% for Dan Maes (R) and 15% for Tom Tancredo (I).

"Whether Tancredo is siphoning off GOP support that could have been available, or whether Maes' self-inflicted wounds have boosted Tancredo's support is open to interpretation. However, the former Congressman's presence on the ballot and Maes' continued problems appear to have all but sealed Democratic retention of the Governor's mansion."

Bennet Holds Small Lead in Colorado
A new Public Opinion Strategies/FMMMA poll in Colorado shows Sen. Michael Bennet (D) with a slight lead over challenger Ken Buck (R) for U.S. Senate, 43% to 40%.

Said pollster David Metz: "Bennet first had to make his case with members of his own party -- and he did that convincingly, according to this data. Now, he has to do the same thing with the voters that will be the deciding factor in November: Independents, suburban voters, and seniors, in particular."

Daley Will Not Seek Re-Election
Chicago Mayor Richard Daley says he will not run for re-election in 2011, the Chicago Tribune reports.

Said Daley: "The truth is I have been thinking about this for the past several months. In the end this is a personal decision, no more, no less."

Meanwhile, all eyes turn to White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, who has made no secret of his desire to be Daley's successor.

Romney Schedules Iowa Trip
Mitt Romney is planning to return to Iowa in late October to campaign for Iowa Republicans, as he weighs a second bid for the presidency, the Des Moines Register reports.

Romney never recovered from a second-place finish to Mike Huckabee in the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

GOP Operative Recruits Homeless People
Steve May, a Republican operative and candidate for the Arizona State Legislature, has been openly recruiting "drifters and homeless people" onto the Green Party ballot, and admits that their candidacies may siphon support from Democratic candidates, the New York Times reports.

Said May: "Did I recruit candidates? Yes. Are they fake candidates? No way."

Arizona's Democratic Party is attempting to get the candidates removed from the ballot, and the Green Party has urged its supporters to steer clear of the rogue candidates.

Castle Would Beat Coons
A new Rasmussen survey in Delaware shows Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading Chris Coons (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 37%.

However, if Christine O'Donnell (R) were to beat Castle for the GOP nomination, Coons leads 47% to 36%.

Patrick Keeps Lead in Massachusetts
A new State House News Poll in Massachusetts shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) leading Republican challenger Charlie Baker by six points, 34% to 28%. The poll also shows Independent candidate Tim Cahill polling at 18%.

Said pollster Gerry Chervinsky: "If Deval Patrick were in a one on one race and there were no Tim Cahill, Deval Patrick wouldn't have a chance."

Very Close in Texas
A new Texas Watch poll, conducted by Republican polling firm Hill Research Consultants, shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) barely edging challenger Bill White (D), 42% to 41%, with 14% still uncommitted to either candidate.

Castle Won't Court Tea Party
Dave Weigel notes that while Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) might be facing a primary challenge from Tea Party-backed Christine O'Donnell (R) in his bid for U.S. Senate, he has made little effort to court the movement.

"There's something almost quaint about this faith in the local media, especially when O'Donnell's supporters are asked about the same stories. They, like many members of the Tea Party movement, don't think that information in newspapers is definitive; it may even be inferior to what they hear from their friends or from talk radio. This is one of many reasons why Castle gets along with these activists the way a negotiator might deal with a hostage-taker."

Said Castle: "Some of the things they seem to advocate go beyond the norm... I have trouble distinguishing sometimes between the factions out there that are in this ultra-conservative mode. You know -- be it the patriots, or this Tea Party Express, or the different factions of the Tea Party."

Republicans Stalling Hundreds of Judgeships
Associated Press: "A determined Republican stall campaign in the Senate has sidetracked so many of the men and women nominated by President Barack Obama for judgeships that he has put fewer people on the bench than any president since Richard Nixon at a similar point in his first term 40 years ago. The delaying tactics have proved so successful, despite the Democrats' substantial Senate majority, that fewer than half of Obama's nominees have been confirmed and 102 out of 854 judgeships are vacant."

Third World America
Out today: Third World America: How Our Politicians Are Abandoning the Middle Class and Betraying the American Dream by Arianna Huffington.

In a review, David Corn notes Huffington "has upped the ante by essentially saying that if Obama doesn't rev up the recovery efforts, the United States will soon disintegrate into a Third World nation."

Axelrod Stays on Message
Though polls show playing the Bush card isn't likely to help Democrats, perhaps it's still their best shot.

David Axelrod: "A large number of people don't believe that a Republican Congress would go back to the policies of George W. Bush, even though their own leaders have said as much in public. Pete Sessions said we want to go back to the same exact agenda that was there before this president took office. So our job in the next eight weeks is to make sure that people understand that, that they understand the stakes."

Of Course, Democrats Could Still Vote
If Democrats lose control of Congress, pollster Peter Hart tells NBC News it's "because they didn't vote."

According to nearly every poll, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the generic congressional ballot among registered voters. It's the likely voter screen that shifts the advantage to the Republicans. Democrats just don't seem interested in voting.

Republicans Now Likely to Take House
Cook Political Report: "For the first time, our internal race-by-race model estimates a GOP gain of over 40 seats. We are revising our House forecast to a Republican gain of at least 40 seats, the minimum to give them majority status, and very possibly substantially more... By the time we release new House ratings this week, eight Democratic open seats will be in the Lean or Likely Republican columns, 45 Democratic seats will be in the Toss Up column, and 30 seats will be in the Lean Democratic column, for a total of over 80 Democratic seats at substantial risk."

Is it a Debate Without Television Cameras?
Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) has agreed to debate challenger Mick Mulvaney (R) this week -- but only if there are no video or audio recordings made, WACH-TV reports.

Playing the Bush Card Isn't Likely to Work
The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey finds that 58% of American voters believe that Republicans, if they take control of Congress, will have different ideas than former President Bush's, as compared to 35% who think they will return to Bush's policies.

Obama's War
The new Bob Woodward book due out later this month is so secret its publisher refused to reveal the title. However, a Borders executive tells the New York Times it will be called Obama's War.

Orszag Supports Extending Bush Tax Cuts
Writing in the New York Times, former Obama budget director Peter Orszag makes the case for extending the Bush-era tax cuts.

"In the face of the dueling deficits, the best approach is a compromise: extend the tax cuts for two years and then end them altogether. Ideally only the middle-class tax cuts would be continued for now. Getting a deal in Congress, though, may require keeping the high-income tax cuts, too. And that would still be worth it."

"Why does this combination make sense? The answer is that over the medium term, the tax cuts are simply not affordable. Yet no one wants to make an already stagnating jobs market worse over the next year or two, which is exactly what would happen if the cuts expire as planned."

Quote of the Day
"Not too darn much."

-- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), in a must read interview with Mark Halperin, on what Republicans have done to deserve a good midterm election result.

GOP Holds Big Lead Heading Into Final Months
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds American voters split at 43% each on which party they say they will vote for this fall. But among those most likely to vote, Republicans hold a dramatic 49% to 40% advantage.

Key finding: Only 26% think the economy is going to get better in the next year, down markedly from 47% a year ago. In addition, 61% think the country is on the wrong track, up from 48% a year ago.

"One hope for Democrats is this: There are enough pro-Democrat, pro-Obama voters available to help the party head off disaster -- if they can be persuaded to show up and vote. In the survey, those who expressed the very highest levels of interest in this year's election preferred a Republican Congress by a margin of 53% to 35%. Among all other, less interested voters, Democrats are preferred by a 20-point margin."

Republicans Have Momentum Heading Into Midterms
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds that for the first time in more than four years, Republicans now "run about evenly with Democrats on the question of which party they trust to handle the nation's biggest problems. Among registered voters, 40% say they have more confidence in Democrats and 38% say they have more trust in Republicans. Three months ago, Democrats had a 12-point advantage."

"Among all voters, 47% say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45% would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage on this question has been rare in past years -- and among those most likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53% to the Democrats' 40%."

Meanwhile, President Obama's approval rating is at a new low with just 46% of all Americans giving him positive marks and 52% negative ones.

GOP Holds Edge on Economy
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats on the economy, with 46% of Americans saying that Republicans in Congress would do a better job and 43% saying that Democrats would do a better job.

The Republicans three point edge is a big shift from last year, when the Democrats held a 52% to 39% advantage.